‘Trump is out of his depth’…
‘Donald Trump is snatching Western defeat from the jaws of victory in Ukraine. He is extending a lifeline to a struggling war criminal running out of ways to fund his mischief.
The Kremlin may “have all the cards” in Trump’s mind, but that is only true at the most superficial level, and mostly not true at all. Russia’s deformed war economy is kept afloat by unsustainable hidden debts.’
Donald Trump’s ‘reverse Nixon’ charade insults our intelligence
‘Harvard professor Craig Kennedy says banks have been coerced into off-budget loans to defence contractors worth up to $250bn (£193bn), disguising the true costs of the war and “creating the preconditions for a systemic credit crisis”.
Russia’s “rainy day” welfare fund is running out of gold.
Its liquid assets are down to 2pc of GDP. Ex-finance minister Mikhail Zadornov said the country would be unable to prosecute the war within six months if oil prices fell further, which is highly likely as Opec+ raises output into an incipient global glut. West Siberian light crude is already down to $62.65 a barrel.
Putin has lost his regional ally in Syria. His mercenaries in the Sahel are overstretched and in crisis. He was unable to back his Armenian proteges against predatory ethnic cleansing by Azerbaijan. He needs pre-modern North Korean troops and Iranian drones to fight his war.
He has conquered less than 1pc of Ukraine’s territory over the last year and has failed to capture a single town of importance. It is hard to exaggerate the strategic criminality of Trump’s pro-Putin pivot at this juncture.
Trump’s courtiers say his shrewd goal is to separate Russia from China and pull off a “reverse Nixon”, sacrificing Ukraine as a pawn in a larger game of great power chess.
Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, talks airily of “peeling off” the Russians, as if Nixon’s strategy of triangulation in the early 1970s has the slightest relevance to today’s circumstances.
The only peeling under way is that of Moscow achieving its 80-year objective of splitting the Atlantic Alliance and gaining a free hand to do its worst in Europe.
To the extent that Trump really has such a strategy – as opposed to a proclivity for authoritarian regimes in general, and Putin’s variant in particular – he is out of his strategic depth.
“It’s a geopolitical fantasy,” said Michael Clark from the Australia-China Relations Institute. He said none of the structural conditions that made Nixon’s gambit possible exists today and those pushing the line “are either simply searching for an excuse or indulging in ungrounded geopolitical capering”.
Nixon did not have to separate the Soviet Union and China. The two proletarian brothers were already at each other’s throats. It was dangerous to be mistaken for a Russian at the height of the Cultural Revolution.’
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