Trump 2.0 Crosses Atlantic

Eight years ago, at precisely this moment in Donald’s Trump’s first term, the new president was pushing his case for a restored détente with Russia. Trump went on to summit with Vladimir Putin five times and conducted at least 16 telephone exchanges with the Russian president.

This was the count by mid–2019. After that and until the end of his term, the Deep State — notably the intelligence apparatus, the Democratic National Committee, and the mass media — had Trump bound in the rope of subterfuge so thoroughly that the relationship developed no further.

The neo-détente Trump favored — that Trump was correct to favor, better put — never came to be. Joe Biden and his people, to state the obvious, were by contrast neo–Cold Warriors — mere ideologues, neoliberals wholly incapable of autonomous thought, initiative, imagination, or anything else that sophisticated statecraft requires of its practitioners.

Trump began his second term not quite a month ago, having promised throughout his political campaign to end Biden’s proxy war in Ukraine within a day of assuming office. And it is already evident that his ambitions now run far beyond the settlement in Ukraine he has long promised and the modest détente with Moscow he sought during his first four years in the White House.

The Biden project, from his years as Barack Obama’s vice-president and certainly during his term as Obama’s successor, was to isolate the Russian Federation as completely as possible by way of a poorly conceived sanctions regime, covert operations such as the Nord Stream pipeline explosions, a towering wall of propaganda and what coercions were necessary to secure the allegiance of European clients who were, in any case, already wanderers on the world stage with no clue as to their purpose or even their interests.

Biden’s Russia policy left Ukraine waging a deadly proxy war it cannot win and the Continent well on its way to paupery. Joe Biden divided the world at least as severely and dangerously as it was during the Cold War years.

It is precisely these conditions that assuaged the anxieties neoliberals shared with the Deep State during Trump’s first term and the whole of Biden’s. They succeeded in warding off the threat of any kind of constructive co-existence between Russia and the Atlantic alliance —between West and East, this is to say.

This is a pencil-sketch of the world Trump inherited from his predecessor when he moved back into the White house a month ago.

Russia Out of the Cold

Trump seems to have done a lot of thinking during his four years in the political wilderness. A week of exceptional events, each adding more surprise to those preceding it, indicates that Trump and those around him now propose to transcend altogether the binaries Washington has enforced since it assumed its position of global primacy in the late 1940s. Russia is to come in from the cold and the Atlantic is to grow wider.

In this context, extricating the U.S. from the Ukraine quagmire is more than a footnote but nothing like the main attraction. Assuming all goes to Trump’s apparent plan — and we must make this assumption with unsparing caution — the center-stage attraction is discarding what has passed for a world order since the 1945 victories.

To be noted immediately: Sending the ancien régime into the history texts is not the same as constructing a new order to replace it. At this early moment it is not clear whether Trump and his people have an idea for one; yet more doubtful is whether he or any of his people would be up to a project of this world-historical magnitude.

Whatever the future may hold, and seldom does it present such promise and peril as now, Trump and his new cabinet appointees on the national-security side set a lot of wheels in motion last week. A little oddly — a coordination problem here? — Pete Hegseth, the Fox News presenter turned defense secretary, got them rolling last Wednesday morning, some hours before Trump announced his instantly famous telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin.

At a speech in Brussels before NATO defense ministers and various senior Ukrainian officials, Hegseth followed Trump’s habit of bringing several longstanding unsayables into the sphere of the sayable. Retaking land Russian forces now occupy — Crimea, of course, but also sections of eastern Ukraine now formally incorporated into the Russian Federation — is “an unrealistic objective… an illusory goal.”

In addition — a couple of other big ones — Hegseth said the U.S. will not support Ukraine’s desire to join NATO; neither will Article 5 of the NATO charter — an attack on one member is an attack on all — cover the troops of any NATO member dispatched to Ukraine in any capacity.

By the time he said these things, Hegseth had already surrendered U.S. leadership of what is called the Contact Group, a Biden-era creation comprised of 50–plus nations that manages weapons shipments and humanitarian aid — whatever that may mean at this point — to Kiev.

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There was a kerfuffle in political and media circles back home after Hegseth spoke: He didn’t mean it, he couldn’t have meant it, his speechwriters blew it, he has retreated. We are likely to get a lot of this — denial, in a word — from vested interests that simply cannot manage the thought that an order they have presumed to be eternal is about to prove otherwise.

I read news reports to this effect as nothing more than wishful distortion, of which there is much in the coverage of Trump’s new demarches these days. Hegseth said exactly what he meant to say. In a speech Friday in Warsaw, he said his intent in Brussels was to suggest some “realism into the expectations of our NATO allies.” That is clarification, not disavowal.

Trump, as noted, followed Hegseth by a few hours when he announced last Wednesday, just before noon East Coast time, that he and the Russian president had spent (at some point prior) 90 minutes on the telephone together.

It was remarkable enough that Trump immediately described the call as the start of negotiations to achieve a settlement of the Ukraine crisis. And neither Washington nor Moscow is wasting any time getting talks going. Trump named his team of negotiators not long after he put the telephone down. These are Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Michael Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, and Steven Witkoff, who serves as Trump’s special envoy to West Asia but also dabbles in U.S.–Russian affairs.

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This was far more productive than anything Antony Blinken ever got done as Biden’s secretary of state. To be honest, I didn’t think “Little Marco,” as Trump used to call him, had this kind of thing in him.

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Trump, once again, is merely saying what has previously been unsayable. Zelensky is a classic puppet. It has been a long game of pretend to insist that he and his corrupt, Nazi-infested regime have done anything more than take orders from Washington (along with scores of billions of dollars in unaccounted funds and weapons, of course) since Russia began its military intervention three years ago next week.

Ending Russian Isolation

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What interested me about the Trump–Putin call as much as the initiative on Ukraine were those items — the dollar, energy supplies and other such topics — that are normally considered mere bric-a-brac in diplomatic exchanges between major powers.

“We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together,” Trump declared on “X” and his Truth Social digital platform. Notably, this remark preceded Trump’s mention of a settlement in Ukraine.

All efforts to isolate Russia are now over: This is Trump’s unmistakable point, and I count it the overriding significance of his call with Putin. Let us all exhale from the bottom of our lungs. If Trump makes good on this, many wasteful, destructive years of dangerous tension, conjured from nothing more than paranoia and propaganda, will now draw to a close.

The implications of this for Ukraine and, more significantly, for Europe, could hardly be more immediate or more momentous.

Vance Unloads

J.D. Vance dropped more realism, immensely more, on those gathered for the annual Munich Security Conference this past weekend. While those present reportedly expected the vice-president to detail Trump’s plans to negotiate a Ukraine settlement, Vance had little to say on the topic.

“The Trump administration is very concerned with European security,” he allowed more or less in passing, “and believes that we can come to a reasonable settlement between Russia and Ukraine.”

That was it. Vance then launched into the subject on which he was obviously intent to unload:

‘The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America.”

So began a sort of measured tirade, if there is such a thing, against what is now an openly undemocratic defense of the neoliberal order European elites have mounted in recent years — in the name, of course, of defending democracy.

Vance’s speech was an attack on censorship, on flagrant manipulations of elections, on the incessant frauds of the “disinformation” industry, on the excesses of the wokery liberal authoritarians have so foolishly insisted upon imposing on the more sensible among us.

In a single word, Vance’s speech was an attack on the hypocrisies on which the neoliberal order has come to depend for its survival. These are the remarks, let us not forget, of a political figure, a conservative populist, who has fought all these battles at home.

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Various commentators have compared Vance’s remarks with the famously stunning speech Putin made at the Munich conference in 2007. Putin’s blunt criticisms of America’s unilateral assertion of its power was an early signal of the non–West’s challenge to the post–Cold War order.

It is said that Vance’s speech is of comparable import — an announcement that the Trump administration has lost interest in the postwar Western alliance and intends to abandon Europe to its own devices. I do not read this in Vance’s remarks. At the very least there is a danger of mis– or over-interpretation.

Attack on Neoliberal Order

Here is a transcript of Vance’s speech. Read it carefully. It is a considerable stretch, in my view, to find in it any suggestion at all that it marks “the beginning of the end of the post–WW2 Western alliance,” to quote one commentator of this persuasion.

Vance spoke vigorously in favor of “our shared values,” or, elsewhere, “European values.” He spoke, in other words, for the West’s continued unity, making his case on the cultural plane, the political plane, the plane of democratic principles.

No, Vance’s offensive was against those elites who have abandoned these values, these political norms, these principles. His was an attack on the neoliberal order as he finds it in Europe — in some respects a more advanced case than he has found it at home.

The Europeans at the Munich conference were in a state of shock after Vance spoke, not least because of his criticisms of how the Germans and others seek to block populist parties from their governments. This was the basis of Olaf Scholz’s spirited refutation of the American vice-president.

“The chancellor said Germany ‘would not accept’ suggestions from outsiders about how to run its democracy,” The New York Times reported. “‘That is not done, certainly not among friends and allies,’” Scholz insisted. “‘Where our democracy goes from here is for us to decide.’”

Scholz reflected something I am tempted to call “Europanic,” but the term does not fit. Vance assailed not Europe or Europeans, but the corruptions inherent in European elites’ defense of a crumbling neoliberal order. Scholz, as is there in the Munich transcripts, stood in defense of these antidemocratic corruptions.

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Via https://www.unz.com/plawrence/trump-2-0-crosses-the-atlantic/