Slow progress in decarbonising council housing stock shows the 2050 net zero target is a farce

The statutory requirement for the UK to achieve net-zero in carbon emissions by 2050 has been debated a certain amount during the Conservative leadership contest. Even if such an objective is considered desirable, is it feasible in practical and financial terms? Kemi Badenoch has been among the sceptics. Passing a law does not change the realities. But nor is the legal target an irrelevance. Even an attempt to meet the target imposes very considerable costs.

Among local authorities, the greatest implication is for those with council housing stock. I have made inquiries, via Freedom of Information requests, on their estimates of the total cost of decarbonizing their housing stock to meet net-zero targets and what (if any) annual spending schedule they have to achieve it. Savills has already done some estimates for the Local Government Association. It came up with £34.3 billion. (That was just for England and excludes housing associations.) Where is the money supposed to come from? Central Government has established the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund and boasts it has “already allocated over £1 billion since 2019.” But that is rather modest – especially as it covers housing associations as well.

So could local authorities pay for the cost from their own housing revenue accounts (HRAs)? They seem to think that would be a bit complicated. A recent report from one group of councils declared:

Many of the individual councils responded to me that they did not even know how much decarbonizing their stock would cost. For instance, my own local authority Hammersmith and Fulham responded:

“Development of a retrofit strategy is currently in process that will answer this question, and this will be published in due course once this is finalized and approved.”

Dundee Council could not come up with a total but did add:

“If every dwelling in our stock with a gas boiler was to replace it with an air source heat pump, the cost would be approximately £115,000,000.”

Other councils had produced estimates of the total cost but had no annual schedule to meet it. Greenwich had a total of £759 million: “We do not currently have an annual spending schedule for this program of work.” Barnsley’s £630.5 million: “We are working to incorporate NZC requirements into our 30-year HRA business plan, so we cannot currently provide this information.” Hull’s is £429 million: “A rigorous assessment would need to be completed.” Croydon’s is between £200 million and £220 million: “We do not currently have an annual spending schedule.” Stockport £150 million to £175 million: “No information” on annual spending. Tandridge has a total of £230 million and “will begin to start from the 2027/28 financial year.” Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole estimates cost at £150 million but “no plans currently defined” on spending. Wokingham’s is £46.3 million; the Council is “reviewing” its spending. Winchester’s total is £119 million: “We have not scheduled spend for Net-Zero…”

Islington Council tells me they estimate the total cost for them would be £1.5 billion. “We are not able to invest what we would like to toward a decarbonisation,” it adds and doesn’t produce a spending schedule but mentions various bids for central government funding.

Redbridge Council estimates £139.5 million as the total bill; so far as spending is concerned “current allocation being agreed through stock investment strategies.”

Doncaster Council puts the total at £608 million: “The capital budgets are not categorized to show spend on decarbonising the housing stock to meet net zero targets, therefore this information cannot be provided.”

Other councils did offer both a total cost – and a some kind of spending schedule:

North Lanarkshire – £3 billion. Spending £38.6m per year.
Sheffield – £2.2 billion. £80 million over five years.
Barking and Dagenham – £870 million. Spending £1 million a year.
Wigan – £866 million. Spending £1 million a year.
Swansea – £755 million. £20 million a year.
Camden – £700 million. £7 million a year.
Lambeth – £600 million plus – £6.2 million next year.
Rotherham – £600 million. Spending £500,000 a year.
Oxford – £502.3 million. £2 million a year.
Wandsworth – £474 million. £12.8 million next year.
Haringey – £401 million. £3.5 million a year.
South Lanarkshire – £360 million. £18 million a year.
Tower Hamlets – £350 million. £300,000 a year.
High Peak – £300 million. £2 million a year.
Dacorum – £155 million. £1.8 million a year.
Dudley – £274 million. £8.4 million over five years.
Gateshead – £265 million. £2 million a year.
Leicester £250 million-£300 million. £2.45 million a year.
Slough – £245 million. £8.3 million a year.
Bristol – “Significantly more” than £240 million. £10 million a year.
Great Yarmouth – £183 million. £2.3 million next year.
Charnwood – £174 million. £350,000 a year.
Ipswich £171 million. £600,000 next year.
Waltham Forest, £150 – £160 million. £3 million a year.
Somerset £135 million. £5.7 million
Tamworth – £113 million. £1 million a year.
Gravesham – £112 million. £2 million a year.
Waverley – £112 million. £280,000 a year.
Central Bedfordshire – £100 million. 
Warwick – £100 million. £5 million a year.
Blackpool – £89 million. £500,000 a year.
Rugby – £81 million. £1.3 million next year.
Cheltenham – £68 million. £3 million a year.
Sutton – Over £50 million. £4.4 million a year.
Hinckley and Bosworth – £46.7 million. £1.2 million next year.
Wealden – £45 million. £1 million – £2 million a year.
Basildon – £40 million. £3 million a year.
Canterbury £35 million. £750,000 a year.

Let’s face it. The 2050 target is a fantasy, isn’t it? Few councils are even pretending they have any chance of getting there. 25 years might seem like a long time. But the progress varies from derisory to non-existent. Barking and Dagenham, for instance, with a cost of £870 million, but with spending of £1 million a year, rather suggests it’s not going to make it. In any case, when did you last hear of big public sector spending programs coming in within budget?

Most of these Councils have passed motions declaring a “climate emergency” and resolving to meet net zero by 2030. For example, Hammersmith and Fulham did so in 2019 – it resolved “to set up a new cross-cutting climate change emergency unit” as well as a “climate change emergency commission” (neither ever heard of again, of course.) It “set a target date of 2030 for the whole of the Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham to be carbon neutral” while “requesting government funding be made available to implement swift appropriate actions in response.” (The same meeting resolved to remain in the European Union and decided that it really must do something about reopening Hammersmith Bridge.)

Spending billions to inflict heat pumps on Council tenants is a particular folly. Ross Clark notes in the Daily Telegraph:

“Electricity prices are so much higher than gas prices that you can’t count on saving money when it comes to running costs – even if your heat pump works as intended, and pumps at least three times as much heat energy into your home than it consumes in electrical energy. In any case, field trials have repeatedly shown many heat pumps failing to reach this benchmark, with the coefficient of performance (the ratio of heat energy out to electrical energy in) achieving a median of 2.80, falling to a mean of 2.44 when the outside temperature falls below 2 Celsius – exactly when you need your heating the most.”

Imagine if Dundee Council really did find £115 million to put in heat pumps in all their properties and cause their tenants to shiver as they struggled with increased energy bills. Or, for example, Solihull Council came up with the £56.7 million needed for the 8,642 homes they tell me they are supposed to achieve. It would not end well.

The 2050 net zero requirement is wildly unrealistic. But while the target is surely futile it can still cause damage by distorting the spending priorities of councils in a way that is detrimental to their tenants. We should put the target out of its misery.

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