James Crouch: The local elections point to a Labour majority – but not to a Conservative wipe out

James Crouch is Head of Policy and Public Affairs at Opinium.

These local elections have been a painful taste of defeat for the Conservative Party. While no-one can escape the obvious implications for this government’s chances of being re-elected later this year, electoral defeat doesn’t always mean destruction. While a Labour majority seems highly likely, the scale and shape of that defeat is far from certain.

One of the complicated things about local elections is there are almost too many ways to judge how a party has succeeded or failed.

There isn’t even a single way of measuring vote share. One measure, from Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, says Labour would have 34 per cent of the votes across the country, a lead of only seven points over the Conservatives, who would be on 27 per cent. This lead is unchanged from 2023, with both major parties down two points on last year.

Before we get into the detail, I think it’s worthwhile stating up front that what you must just plug these numbers straight into Electoral Calculator and treat it like a forecast. It’s not.

Despite the restrained Labour lead, this set of local elections broadly confirms three things we already know from the polls: Labour is clearly ahead in vote share right across the country; the relative position of the two major parties is essentially unchanged in last 12 months; and both parties are vulnerable to smaller parties reducing their total vote share.

But we can also glean some things from this set of local elections that go beyond that.

The Government’s low vote share matters

Data from local elections over the last 40 or so years tell us the government’s vote share is more significant as an indicator than the opposition’s vote share. Governments have received significantly and repeatedly below 30 per cent of the vote on three occasions: John Major’s before 1997, Gordon Brown’s before 2010, and now Rishi Sunak’s.

It indicates a scale of lost support that hints at a likely change of government. This doesn’t tell us anything about the scale of the defeat, just that one is likely should be our starting point. The Conservative Party has voting figures at local government so low it must point to voters being ready to remove them from office.

Others could argue otherwise: what about the 2004 local elections for Tony Blair? What about the 2019 local elections?

They key thing I emphasize is the ‘repeatedly’. After 2005 Labour did repeatedly get under 30 per cent of the vote, and the 2005 election was – in terms of vote share – appalling for Labour anyway. The 2019 locals should essentially be discounted as a benchmark for anything, as the events around it are so extraordinary.

The relatively small lead for Labour does tell us something

But the more interesting area of focus is the scale of the defeat, if in fact the Conservative Party is to leave office. Here the relatively small Labour lead from Rallings and Thrasher is curious in the context of some of the opinion polls.

From Opinium’s perspective the difference is less extraordinary. We have some of the lowest Labour leads in the industry, currently 16 points. Once you factor in a far greater fragmentation of the major parties’ vote share in local elections the divide is bridgeable. Perhaps more so if we use John Curtice’s measure which gives Labour a nine-point lead.

However, it does feel like there is a big difference between say a 25-plus lead in some polls and a single-digit lead in real votes cast in local elections. It indicates the scale of Labour’s vote share lead at the next election is probably less likely to be eye-popping or record-breaking in nature.

A Labour majority is likely

We have established that the Government is following all the patterns of one that is likely to lose power and Labour is likely to have a clear lead, although probably not out of the ordinary for a big win. However, what the local elections also tell us is that we should discount the idea Labour needs a double-digit lead purely to get a majority of one.

The swing in Conservative areas is almost double that in Labour areas. In Conservative held wards there was an 11.5 per cent swing to Labour, compared to only a 6.1 per cent swing in Labour held wards. This means that Sir Keir Starmer might need a pretty large swing to win, but he also doesn’t have to have a gargantuan one in order to deliver an overall majority.

Similarly, Labour’s vote is becoming much more efficient in other ways. For example, the party is down five points in their safest wards and it doesn’t matter. This is in places they used to have well over half the vote and probably still do.

On the other hand, Reform UK’s impact at these elections were minimal, but they still show the greatest potential to damage the Conservatives in the seats vulnerable to Labour.

Keeping perspective after a bad result

This being said, there does need to be some perspective about the scale of this defeat. There are some things for the party to take encouragement from. Admittedly, this is a very hard ask after thousands of councillors and activists who have worked tirelessly only to be met by what feels like a rout. But I do also want to stick my neck out a bit.

We have had months of headlines saying Labour could get a majority of 200 or the Conservative Party could go down to fewer than 100 MPs. Or even that the party could end up like Canada’s Conservatives in the 1990s: obliterated.

I don’t really see it. The headline polling is dire, but it’s easy to end up in a doom spiral. Being a Conservative voter is not some sort of endangered species.

Yes, Susan Hall did not get elected, but she won almost 33 per cent of the vote in a city moving against the party. She also did better than both times Steve Norris ran (27 per cent and 29 per cent) when the party really was in a poor state.

Ben Houchen beat a Labour candidate in an area where the Tories couldn’t elect a single MP for almost twenty years. The terrible misfortune to befall Andy Street, less than 2,000 votes from victory, should not detract from his extraordinary electoral record in a part of the world that is still far more safely in Labour’s column than the Tories’.

Essentially, the Conservatives are in much ruder health than they otherwise might be. Between 1995 and 1998 the Conservative Party was the third party of local government behind the Lib Dems. In 1995 Labour won almost once twice as many votes as the Conservatives; the number of Labour to Conservatives councillors approached three-to-one in 1996.

The Conservatives are not in the same place now. Labour still has a smaller share of local councillors than Michael Howard had going into the 2005 general election. The Conservatives still have over 2,000 more councillors than the Liberal Democrats. The party still holds onto some surprising redoubts, like Harlow and Walsall, that you would expect an ever-rising Labour tide to have reached by now. The party’s total vote share and prospects is more buoyant than a simple glance at some of the polls might expect.

This doesn’t mean you can escape the key takeaway from them that a clear Labour win is on the cards. Nevertheless, the many commentators who enjoy crowing that the Conservative Party is on course for a wipe out could be surprised when the party’s position in the next parliament is better than expected.

The post James Crouch: The local elections point to a Labour majority – but not to a Conservative wipe out appeared first on Conservative Home.